A rare reaction from competitive colleagues at the Churchill Club this evening … I had actually just provided the very first pattern, and got the video camera for the response on phase.
We each suggest patterns, and then vote red or green, which usually results in a lively argument.
I opted for a U.S. market pattern and a geek trend (and tried not to overlap with last year’s predictions):.
Pattern # 1: Demographics are destiny, developing chance. Every 11 seconds, a baby boomer turns 60. This Internet-savvy mate represents an enormous market of time and cash, driving brand-new opportunities in “psychological exercise”, online education, and eventually, an “eBay for details” that surpasses the marketplace for physical goods.
Pattern # 2: Advancement Trumps Style. Lots of interesting unsolved issues in computer science, nanotechnology, and artificial biology require the building and construction of complex systems. Evolutionary algorithms are an effective alternative to conventional design, blossoming first in neural networks, now in microbial re-engineering, and eventually in AI.
Vinod Khosla:.
Pattern # 1: The gadget that used to be a phone. A cellphone will develop into a mainstream computer. Beyond email, integrated in projection screen, and high speed information will make it your virtual credit card, ID (passport), access to new types of presence (IM), payment system, personal information filing system, and much far more.
Pattern # 2: Fossilizing fossil energy. Oil will have increasing trouble competing with biofuels made from cheap non-food crops for transport. Coal will end up being less competitive compared to reputable solar thermal and enhanced geothermal electrical energy as both oil and coal’s decrease will be helped by higher performance engines, cars, lighting, home appliances.
Josh Kopelman:.
Trend # 1: The rise of the “Implicit” Internet. Historically, the web delivered most of its worth by satisfying explicit user actions– a user got in a search question on Google, a user entered an evaluation on Yelp, a user included their buddies on Facebook.
However, as individuals invest more time online (and carry out more of their activities online), they are leaving a trail of “digital breadcrumbs” exposing information about themselves. The outcome is an enormous quantity of implicit information on a user. Netflix knows what motion pictures I see and like. Apple understands what music I buy and listen to …
Nevertheless, until now that data has existed in silos. There has actually been no easy method for me (as a user) to access and gain from that information. The next huge wave of Web worth development will come to those companies that can deliver value based on the implicit usage of these information sources – by making the most of these existing information repositories in novel methods.
Trend # 2: Equity capital 2.0. Equity capital has actually financed most of the transformative software and Internet business for the last twenty years. Nevertheless, altering economics (for both startups and venture funds) combined with altering markets, will have a remarkable influence on the venture capital industry.
Joe Schoendorf:.
Trend # 1: Water tech will replace worldwide warming as a global priority.
The world is lacking functional water and this will kill millions more people in our life time than worldwide warming.
Trend # 2: 80% of the world population will bring mobile web gadgets within 5-10 years. Mobile web gadgets are quickly becoming THE leading product classification.
Roger McNamee:.
Pattern # 1: The mobile device industry’s migration from feature phones to cell phones will produce even greater interruption than what the PC industry experienced as it moved from character-mode to graphical interfaces. It will disrupt the competitive balance, with huge market share shifts. Consumers will gain from higher option and lower prices.
Pattern # 2: Within 5 years, whatever that matters to you will be readily available on a gadget that fits on your belt or in your purse. This will trigger an enormous shift in web traffic from PCs to smaller sized gadgets.
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Churchill, Club, on phase, paddle, Top 10, Tech, Trends, dispute, Fairmont, San Jose, Vinod Khosla, Josh Kopelman, Roger McNamee, Joe Schoendorf.
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