This is the most challenging speaking occasion, without a doubt, that I handle, and somehow I keep coming back.
Just spank me with that red paddle!
5 panelists are asked to come up with two tech trends that we believe are worthy of the top 10 title, and that are, as they advise:
1) Not obvious today
2) You think there will be explosive development in about 5 years’ time
When you do this for many years, it gets harder and harder. For a number of years now, I have actually done this, and need to develop new ones each year. If it’s too obvious, it’s boring. If it’s too radical, it may not matter over the next 5 years. And it had to be essential and new … worthy of a top 10 tech trend.
So, here are the 10 trends …
What do you believe? Which do you agree most with? Disagree most with? Believe are too apparent?
Pattern 1. Radical Globalization of Social Commerce (Kevin Efrusy).
In previous cycles, worldwide sections consisted of 30-40 percent of income, begun 3-5 years after the United States effort. Moving forward, “ROW” can control domestic, and players who wait to address it are vulnerable to competitors who go global initially.
Trend 2. Absolutely No Limited Cost Education (Bing Gordon).
In the 1970s, ATMs were thought about “dehumanizing” and bank tellers were the gold requirement. But tellers became worse, while ATMs enhanced. Public education seems to be repeating this pattern, and the oligopolists of “big education” don’t seem to have checked out Innovator’s Issue.
Pattern 3. Enormous Sensing Units and Data (Reid Hoffman).
Sensing units cost trends to absolutely no; there are sensors everywhere and part of everything. In mix, we’ll create several information collections that power applications and developments to enhance our lives. Genetics, illness, and symptom data for automate tri-corders, accuracy diagnosis, and personalized medicine. Collaborative filtering of all sort of discovery– from music to information to expert training.
Pattern 4. All Vehicles Go Electric (Steve Jurvetson).
Eventually all motor vehicles will transition to an electrical drive train, paying for higher efficiency, benefit, and a wide range of new design choices. Within 5 years, this inevitability will end up being clear. ([ it got heated sometimes; here is a brief video of Peter Thiel’s response.).
Trend 5. A Shift Towards Technocracy: Doing More with Less (Peter Thiel).
Democrats desire federal government to do more with more. Republicans state federal government should do less with less. Innovation might permit it to do more with less.
Trend 6. It’s Simply the Endeavor Cycle (Kevin Efrusy).
The fortunes of Silicon Valley hardly ever mirror the remainder of the world because the ebb and flow of creative interruption follows a various pattern and 14-16 year cycle than the macro economy. We seem right on schedule …
Pattern 7. Gamification of Everything (Bing Gordon).
As Lance Armstrong composed, “Every second counts.” As digital natives progressively multi-task, and as the social web creates geometric development in posts, the fight is for engagement. For the growing population of game-players, supposedly 70% of Americans, games are necessary systems for producing meaning, and can increase behavior by 25 to 100%.
Trend 8. The New Hardware: Bits to Atoms (Reid Hoffman).
Open Source patterns now applied to hardware. Cumulative style bases with rapid adjustments. Flexible manufacturing producing minimal run and distinct gadgets. 3D printing means revolution in customized and distinct items. Eventually, revolutions in biological and medical products and services.
Pattern 9. Moore’s Law Speeds up Beyond Silicon (Steve Jurvetson).
When we think about Moore’s Law in the abstract, the dropping expense of computation is not tapering off. Rather it will speed up even more still as we look beyond the silicon age.
Trend 10. The Starts of Bioinformatics; Intelligent Design Over Random Drug Discovery (Peter Thiel).
More effective computers will turn biology into an info science.
Tags:
Churchill, Club, 2012, Top, Ten, Trends, Argument, Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, guys without hats.
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