IRR Viewpoint 2018: Retail


– Sellers continue to be interrupted by ecommerce, along with shifting demographics and consumer costs practices. Trading velocity continues to slow in retail sector.

– Aggressive property management versus portfolio development is the key to success for retail investors.

– Retail transactions amounted to $46.9 billion through 3Q 2017, a reduction of 19% from the year before. The largest drop in deal volume ($15.8 billion) was in the East region.

– Majority of markets in the West region (78.6%) remain in expansionary market cycle stage.

– Top Markets (ranked by YOY deal development rate): 1) Las Vegas, NV; 2) Stamford, CT; 3) Broward, FL; 4) Austin, TX; 5) Hartford, CT.

– 2018 Outlook: More than half (66%) of nationwide markets are considered ‘in balance’ and an additional 25% are within 2 years of ending up being ‘in balance.’ On average, markets are anticipating a 2.2% boost in retail market rents in the next 12 months. With strong cap rate compression in previous years, 74% of markets anticipate cap rates to stay steady in 2018.

Source